TotalEnergies forecasts global oil demand growth until 2040

French energy giant TotalEnergies has projected that global oil demand will continue to rise until 2040 before beginning a gradual decline, citing persistent energy security concerns and limited international coordination on emission reduction efforts.

The company made the projection in its annual energy outlook report released on Tuesday, which outlined three key scenarios: current trends, a moderately ambitious “momentum” path, and a “rupture” scenario aligned with the Paris Agreement.

At the report’s presentation, TotalEnergies Chief Executive Officer Patrick Pouyanné said the forecast marks an upward revision from last year, driven by factors such as the U.S. government’s partial rollback of green subsidies, the approval of new liquefied natural gas projects, renewed coal plant construction in Asia, and slowing electric vehicle sales worldwide.

Pouyanné said political fragmentation has made global coordination on emission targets increasingly difficult, noting that the company avoided specifying the exact year oil demand will peak due to internal disagreements and political sensitivities.

According to the report, global oil demand is expected to rise by nearly 5% to 108 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2040 before falling to 98 million bpd by 2050. Under the momentum scenario, demand could drop to 79 million bpd, while a Paris-aligned trajectory would see it fall further to 55 million bpd.

The report also noted that China has overtaken the United States as the global leader in clean technology, with an 80% market share across key renewable sectors. TotalEnergies projects that global natural gas demand will grow by 10% to 4,620 billion cubic metres by 2050, while electricity demand will nearly double to 57,140 terawatt hours—driven by transport, cooling, and the rising energy needs of data centres and artificial intelligence.